Power system planning in a competitive electricity market

Exhibitor: Hui Kiang Koh

Supervisor: Zhao Dong

Research Group: Complex and Intelligent Systems

Industry Sector: Energy and Utilities

There have been continuous advances and challenges in power system planning techniques in the competitive electricity market. To provide the customers with consistent need of secure, reliable and efficient service is especially important to this changing market.

Decision-making plays a major role in power system planning, as everyone knows that good decisions are the heart of good outcomes. Basic concepts in decision analysis are the distinction between a good decision and a good outcome. A good decision is a logical decision, one based on the information, values and preference of the decision maker. This pretty much refers to probabilistic choices paradigm. The optimal solution of Probabilistic choice paradigm is to choose among those that minimize the expected cost over the set of futures considered. A good outcome is one that is highly value. Risk analysis, decision maker will opt for a more costly solution, if this is reduce the negative consequences of possible adverse future. That is, instead of choosing a cheaper solution that however good in most future, may lead to a heavy loss in a particular scenario. In this competitive market, everyone is a utility maximizer. Decision maker will choose among risky investments as if they were maximizing the expected value of their utility. This is when decision maker is place in the choice of uncertainty. Under this uncertainty, there exists a real-valued utility function such that one risk is preferred to another if and only if it yields higher expected utility.

This thesis project actually identifies the advantages and limits of each planning approach. Based on the proposed planning schemes, the decision maker are able to select the most suitable planning schemes based on the specific requirements and considerations of the planning objective.

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